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How ShotLab's projections work and what they're missing
The NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAA basketball, and MLB winner estimates use recent completed games, weighted scoring margins and a modest home advantage. The soccer model uses recent goals scored and conceded to estimate goal rates, then computes home/draw/away outcomes with a Poisson model. Soccer team shots / shots on target, NHL team shots on goal, and basketball field-goal attempts are projected from box-score data where available, including combined totals. NFL has no literal shots market, and PGA uses tournament leaderboards rather than team moneylines. Missing source data never becomes a fabricated projection.
Samples are limited to games before the selected matchup, so future games do not leak into a retrospective projection. Matchup strength, injuries, starting goalies, lineups, travel, weather, and bookmaker market adjustments are not fully modeled. Probabilities have not been validated out of sample. Never treat high displayed numbers as a reason to bet or chase losses.
Data: unofficial ESPN site data endpoints, accessed directly. Feeds can be blocked, go offline or change format. The app will display the error rather than fabricate a result. Most actions need an active internet connection.